Hero or zero is just a matter of outcome.

Markets were rattled by US-China trade war fears re-ignited last Friday 10 October 2025. Crypto had its moment of plunge and social media got into a frenzy over how manipulated the markets are. Imagine you are in the hot seat making the buy or sell call. You have no idea what is going to happen next. Will Trump TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) flip or double down on waging economic war with China?

Quite frankly, the above weekend incident triggered my recollection of a speech I heard during my WMI (Wealth Management Institute) course on Philanthropy. The speaker shared his experience with his 3 kids hiking the Kepler Track in New Zealand. The rain was terrible and the wind was worse. Safety depended on a rope tied to each of the kids and the winds significantly posed danger. He had a choice whether to proceed on the track or turn back. His youngest had pleaded not to proceed.

Everyone loves a good story.

All was well with memories of the experience. His kids can forever recall Kepler whenever they faced challenges in their lives. But I was sharing my own thoughts with other participants during break time. Yea sure he is a hero based on the outcomes but it could easily been a zero if a mishap were to really happen. You can surely imagine social media commentary to be like,” You know the risk and you still put your kids in danger? What were you thinking?!”

The bet size matters as well.

If you re-mortgaged your paid up house to leverage on a position to bottom pick and buy the dip in markets, the stakes are certainly different. Markets reverse up and you are a hero. But if Trump not longer TACO, then you are a zero. Hero or zero is just a matter of outcome.

I would not have risked my kids and put them in the way of potential danger. Yes a valuable learning experience would have been denied. But I do think there will be other ways to achieve the same learning outcomes.

It is the same with markets. People love those big bets against the odds and win big which will make a fantastic story. More often than not, professional risk management stipulates a bet size that will not cripple the portfolio should the bet go wrong. After all, rain or shine, the market will always be there. Future opportunities will always present themselves again. Why make this scenario, a hero or zero moment?